Recent trading activity
Bordeaux has been leading trade by value since the start of the week, with Le Pin 2010 and Château Lafite Rothschild 2019 trading.
Champagne has been among the most active regions, buoyed by Armand Brignac Ace of Spades Brut Gold and Taittinger Comtes de Champagne Blanc de Blancs 2012, as well as Dom Pérignon Rosé 2008.
Spotlight on 2014 Bordeaux wines
The Bordeaux 2014 vintage is almost a decade old, meaning we can expect a flurry of “ten years on” retrospective tastings in 2024, putting the focus back on this often-overlooked vintage.
While the 2014 En Primeur campaign was not the most successful, overshadowed by the high prices of the 2009 and 2010 campaigns and the poor quality 2013 vintage, there are many reasons to seriously consider these wines now.
In a series of updates, we will be highlighting the value to be found in this vintage and a number of opportunities to take advantage of before 2014 wines come back into the spotlight.
2014 Bordeaux wines – Fair Value analysis
Throughout the 2022 En Primeur campaign, as we assessed the pricing of this year’s releases, several back vintages came up time and time again as offering better value than the 2022 wines according to our Fair Value methodology.
One of those was 2014 – out of the 22 wines covered by Liv-ex which had a strong correlation with Neal Martin scores, 2014 wines featured below the ‘fair value’ line 20 times, highlighting them as a good buying opportunity.
An interesting example to highlight is Château Cheval Blanc, whose 2022 release was actually offered at Fair Value. The 2014 vintage received 95 points from Neal Martin and is currently available at a Market Price of £4,351 per case, well below the fair value line (see graph below).
Château La Mission Haut-Brion Market Prices are 63.5% correlated to Neal Martin scores, and its 2014 vintage sits firmly below the fair value line (see chart below). While it’s not the highest-rated vintage at 96 points, it is available at a 32.7% and 36.1% discount to the 97-point 2018 and 98-point 2020, which also both offer relative value.
The 2022 release of Château Haut-Bailly was offered far above the price implied by Liv-ex’s fair value methodology; while it is potentially the highest-rated vintage of the past decade, it is also the most expensive. The 94-point 2014, on the other hand, falls well below the trendline, and is available at a Market Price of £636 per case.
The graph below shows the correlation between Vieux Château Certan Market Prices and Neal Martin scores. Once again, the 2014 vintage is among the vintages below the fair value line, more so than any other of vintage from the past decade. It is available at a Market Price of £1,520 per case.
While Château Pontet-Canet Market Prices boast a 76.5% correlation to Neal Martin scores, not many of its vintages sit below the fair value line, as shown in the graph below. The 2014 vintage is right on the trendline, offering better value (and more years in bottle) than recent vintages such as 2019, 2021 and 2022.
The examples above highlight that 2014 appears to offer value against other back vintages, consistently appearing well below the trendline in our fair value analysis.
There are currently 187 bids and offers on 2014 Bordeaux wines on Liv-ex. Log in to the exchange to see them and trade.
In case you missed it:
Here’s what we’ve been reading:
- Liv-ex: Opportunities to trade over the holiday period
- The drinks business: Fine wine slows down amid challenging global economic outlook
- The Financial Times: Wine investors wary of full-bodied prices for star 2022 vintage
Liv-ex analysis is drawn from the world’s most comprehensive database of fine wine prices. The data reflects the real time activity of Liv-ex’s 620+ merchant members from across the globe. Together they represent the largest pool of liquidity in the world – currently £100m of bids and offers across 16,000 wines.
