Recent trading activity
Champagne has seen a resurgence in its trade share since the start of the week, accounting for 15.5% of regional trade by value. It was notably buoyed by Dom Pérignon 2013 and Louis Roederer Cristal 2008 trading.
Tuscany and the Rhône both recorded an uptick in trade, with shares of 10.6% and 8.6% of total trade by value respectively. The 2013 and 2018 vintages of Tenuta San Guido, Bolgheri Sassicaia have been among the most active wines since the start of the week.
Spotlight on 2014 Bordeaux wines
As the Bordeaux 2014 vintage approaches its tenth anniversary, we anticipate a surge of “ten years on” retrospective tastings in 2024, redirecting attention to this frequently overlooked vintage.
In a series of updates, we will be highlighting the value to be found in this vintage and a number of opportunities to take advantage of before 2014 wines come back into the spotlight.
2014 Bordeaux wines – Fair Value analysis
In our analysis of 2014 Bordeaux wines last week, we focused on wines released En Primeur that had a correlation with Neal Martin scores. This week, we shift our attention to wines that have a correlation with age, meaning they follow the traditional pricing pattern for fine wine whereby vintages tend to appreciate in value with the passing of time.
During the En Primeur campaign, several back vintages emerged as offering better value than the 2022 wines, according to Liv-ex’s Fair Value methodology. The 2014 vintage frequently stood out as a compelling buying opportunity.
Château Duhart-Milon Market Prices, for example, have a strong 79.4% correlation to age, and its 2014 vintage is positioned below the fair value line. Although it only received a rating of 93 points from Neal Martin and is therefore not the highest-rated vintage, it is currently available at a 11.4% discount compared to the 2022 release, as shown in the chart below. Since its release, the 2014’s Market Price has increased by 69.6%.
While the 2022 release of Château Beychevelle is potentially the highest-rated vintage of the past decade, it was offered above the price implied by Liv-ex’s fair value methodology. The 90-point 2014, on the other hand, falls below the trendline, and is available at a Market Price of £990 per case, a good opportunity for collectors who place less importance on critic scores.
While Château d’Armailhac Market Prices boast a 87.9% correlation to age, not many of its vintages sit below the fair value line, as shown in the graph below. The 2014 vintage is right on the trendline, offering better value (and more years in bottle) than recent vintages such as the 2017 and 2018. The 2014 vintage is available at a Market Price of £480 per case.
The age correlation graph for Pavillon Rouge du Château Margaux shows that the 2014 vintage falls significantly below the fair value line. Both the 2014 and 2022 vintages have the potential to receive the same score from Neal Martin, with the 2022 vintage scoring 91-93 points and the 2014 scoring 92 points. However, the 2022 vintage is priced well above the fair value price suggested by Liv-ex’s methodology, and is offered at an 8.4% premium to the 2014 which has been physical for a few years.
Lastly, although the 2014 vintage of Le Petit Mouton de Mouton Rothschild may not have the highest score with 92 points from Neal Martin, it falls below the fair value line and is available at a Market Price of £2,439 per 12×75.
The examples above highlight that 2014 appears to offer value against other back vintages of wines correlated with age, consistently appearing below the trendline in our fair value analysis. As such, these wines – which are approaching ten years of age and benefit from a few years in bottle already – may represent an attractive buying opportunity.
The wines highlighted above have also experienced significant increases in their Market Price (see graph below) since their release. As suggested by these wines’ strong correlations with age, their 2014 vintage has so far increased in value with the passing of time, and should continue to do so as years go by.
There are currently 188 LIVE bids and offers on 2014 Bordeaux wines on Liv-ex. Log in to the exchange to see them and trade.
In case you missed it:
Here’s what we’ve been reading:
- Liv-ex: Unlocking trading opportunities in Taittinger wines
- The drinks business: Exclusive: Domaine de Baronarques to release first Limoux wines on La Place de Bordeaux
- The Financial Times: European luxury stocks tumble after Richemont suffers US slowdown
Liv-ex analysis is drawn from the world’s most comprehensive database of fine wine prices. The data reflects the real time activity of Liv-ex’s 620+ merchant members from across the globe. Together they represent the largest pool of liquidity in the world – currently £100m of bids and offers across 16,000 wines.
