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Technical Analysis of the Liv-ex 1000 

  • The Liv-ex 1000 experienced a decline of 1.5%, an acceleration compared to the previous month. Year-to-date, all of its sub-indices are down.  
  • The Champagne 50 recorded the most substantial decline in November, falling by 2.2%. The Italy 100 showed the most resilience with a 0.7% decline month-on-month. 

*made using the Liv-ex Charting Tool.  

In the penultimate update of 2023, all major Liv-ex indices fell once again.  

The Liv-ex Fine Wine 100, the industry benchmark, dropped 1.3% month-on-month to close at 364.3, an improvement on last month’s 1.9% drop. The Liv-ex Fine Wine 50, which tracks the daily price movements of First Growths, fell by 1.5% in November (note: the index is updated daily).  

Looking at the broader market, the Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000 also fell by 1.5% in November compared to 1.4% the month before. Month-on-month, all of its sub-indices are down, from just 0.7% for the Italy 100 to 2.2% for the Champagne 50, the worst performer in November. 

Despite the continued downturn, trading activity on the exchange saw an uptick in November, both in terms of value and volume. Market breadth, however, retracted slightly as 2,185 individual labels (LWIN11s) traded on Liv-ex over the month.   

Relative resilience in the Italy 100: Piedmont to the rescue

*made using the Liv-ex Charting Tool.  

Year-to-date and month-on-month, all sub-indices of the Liv-ex 1000 have recorded declines. 

The Italy 100 declined the least out of all of them; the index is down 0.7% month-on-month. The top performers in the index all hailed from Piedmont: Bartolo Mascarello, Barolo 2017 (+23.9%), Gaja, Barbaresco 2012 (+11.8%) and two Bruno Giacosa wines: Le Rocche del Falletto di Serralunga d’Alba Riserva 2001 (+10.5%) and Falletto Vigna Le Rocche Riserva 2016 (+9.6%). 

On the flipside, all five of the worst performers in the Italy 100 were all Tuscan wines: Tignanello 2017 (-12.2%), the 2019 and 2011 vintages of Fontodi, Flaccianello delle Pieve, Colli della Toscana Centrale (both down 10.1%), Solaia 2014 (-9.8%) and Masseto 2015 (-8.7%). 

Technical Analysis of the Liv-ex 1000 

In November, the Index continued and accelerated its decline. The price has now reached and validated an ascending trendline that could provide some support. The Simple Moving Average 50 months (SMA50) at the 408 level could also offer some support, even temporarily.  

The acceleration of the bearish momentum we first discussed in our August update continued in November with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipping to exceptionally low levels. Furthermore, the separation (ie. the gap) between the RSI’s SMA20 and the RSI line is also wider than before. 

The 408-417 price zone is the first major support zone. It remains to be seen whether it will be strong enough to stem a 14% decline in the index since the October 2022 highs. The current bearish momentum and volatility (for example, the Bollinger Bands opening up further) and a 13th month of consecutive decline are all pointing to a continuation of the downward short-term trend. The price action in the next few months will give us the answer. 

What is the Liv-ex 1000 index?    

The Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000 Index is broadest measure of the market. It represents the price movement of 1,000 of the most sought-after fine wines on the world’s most active and liquid marketplace. Stretching back over 20 years, the Liv-ex 1000 is comprised of seven sub-indices from across the world: the Bordeaux 500, the Bordeaux Legends 40, the Burgundy 150, the Champagne 50, the Rhône 100, the Italy 100 and the Rest of the World 60.     

All Liv-ex indices are calculated using our Mid Price: the mid-point between the highest live bid and lowest live offer on the market. These are the firm commitments to buy and sell at that price; transactional data rather than list prices. It represents the actual trading activity of 620+ of the world’s leading fine wine merchants. Because Liv-ex doesn’t itself trade, this data is truly independent and reliable. 

Liv-ex analysis is drawn from the world’s most comprehensive database of fine wine prices. The data reflects the real-time activity of Liv-ex’s 620+ merchant members from across the globe. Together they represent the largest pool of liquidity in the world – currently £100m of bids and offers across 20,000 wines.     

Independent data, direct from the market.