Saturday 15th September marked the four-year
anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers. In line with other indices, the
Liv-ex 100 inevitably suffered from the aftershock, and fell by 3.7% in
September 2008, before falling a further 12% in October (the largest monthly
movement in its history). The instant fall-out from the crash was felt by all
but Gold, which dropped below its pre-Lehman level just once in October 2008,
and has far outperformed all other asset classes since.
Having struggled to recover their original level (and stay
above it), the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 are now respectively 9.6% and 1.3% up
on four years ago. The FTSE 100 finally met the path of the falling Liv-ex 100
in July 2010, and is only marginally keeping its head above its pre-Lehman
level.
Meanwhile, the Liv-ex 100 and Shanghai Composite have
near-mirrored each other’s paths since summer 2010, when Asian demand for
Lafite and the other First Growths saw the wine indices shoot skywards. Indeed
it is only over the last couple of months that their fortunes have diverged. The
Shangahi Composite sunk 2.4 percentage points between July and August to land
at 14% below its level from four years ago, while the Liv-ex 100 made a small
step up. Only time will tell as to whether this marks a more permanent divide
between the paths of wine and Chinese equities. Currently, the Liv-ex 100 is 2.4%
below its level from before the Lehman crash.
