The En Primeur campaign is facing some criticism, with continuous price increases leading to mixed reviews among collectors. While these increases were expected, the direction of travel has raised eyebrows; as one merchant commented ’20+% increases do not a campaign make’.
Last week, we noted a 16% average increase across release prices; this week, it has risen to 19%, putting the sustainability of the campaign in question. These price hikes have led to a situation where some individuals are still participating in the campaign, while others simply don’t have the funds to do so.
Amid these mixed reactions, there are still positive instances, such as the near sold-out release of Château Brane-Cantenac at €60 per bottle ex-négociant, despite a substantial 27.7% increase on the 2021 opening price of €47 per bottle. It remains unclear however whether the high demand was driven by the perceived value or the reduced volume available, which was down by 40% year-on-year.
Highest release price increases last week (5th-9th June) | |||
Wine | Neal Martin Score | 2022 release price | % increase on 2021 |
(95-97) | £1,010/cs | 40.3% | |
(96-98) | £1,320/cs | 39.2% | |
(92-94) | £432/cs | 35% | |
(96-98) | £2,046/cs | 27.2% | |
(96-98) | £3,578/cs | 25.8% | |
Despite the challenges posed by rising prices, wine enthusiasts can still leverage the En Primeur campaign by seeking value in back vintages. Below are the wines expected to be released in the next few days. Assuming the current trend continues, we can make an informed estimate of their release price and identify value in comparable back vintages, listed in the right-hand column. These vintages have similar scores to the 2022s, and some can even be enjoyed immediately.
Upcoming releases and opportunities in back vintages | ||||
Wine | Neal Martin Score | 2021 release price | Predicted 2022 release price (+19%) | Potential value vintages |
94-96 | £792 | £942 | ||
94-96 | £984 | £1,171 | ||
95-97 | £1,716 | £2,042 | ||
95-97 | £768 | £914 | ||
NB: These predictions are based on current information and market trends, and actual release prices may vary.
Final thought
It is expected that Château L’Eglise Clinet will be released on Friday. L’Eglise Clinet Market Prices are 77% correlated with Neal Martin scores, so if the 2022 release price aligns with the current trend of a 19% increase, it will be priced at £2,975 per 12×75, positioning it just below the Fair Value line. Even with a 30% increase, it should align closely with the line, indicating good value.
Any further increase in release price and it will move into ‘overpriced’ territory. If that is the case, there are several back vintages offering better value, including 2014, 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2016, which all fall below the line.
In case you missed it:
Here’s what we’ve been reading:
- Liv-ex: A month of contradictions
- Harpers: Liv-ex records ongoing stagnation in fine wine market
- The Drinks Business: En Primeur see big guns released: Les Carmes Haut-Brion, Ausone and Palmer
Our Bordeaux En Primeur 2022 page contains everything you need to know about this year’s campaign. You can also sign up for our daily En Primeur email alerts using the form below.
Liv-ex analysis is drawn from the world’s most comprehensive database of fine wine prices. The data reflects the real-time activity of Liv-ex’s 620+ merchant members from across the globe. Together they represent the largest pool of liquidity in the world – currently £100m of bids and offers across 16,000 wines.
