Bordeaux 2016: How merchant price predictions compared to reality

In April, we challenged Liv-ex members – 400 of the world’s biggest buyers and sellers of fine wine – to predict Bordeaux 2016 release prices for a basket of wines. We published their overall thoughts on the vintage here.

Now that all those wines have been released, we can look at how the predictions compared to reality.* On average, merchants predicted that the basket of wines would cost €2,060.26, representing a 7% increase on 2015 prices. In reality it would cost €2,154.00, a 11.9% increase.

In last year’s survey, almost all (98.4%) of the merchants surveyed underestimated the overall cost of the group of wines, which is kept the same each year. All the individual wines also came out at higher prices than merchants expected.

This year, a large but smaller majority (90%) underestimated the total cost of the basket. However, three of the wines – Cos d’Estournel, Montrose and Cheval Blanc – came out below their expected price, as shown in the chart below.

Pontet Canet 2016 was the biggest surprise: merchants anticipated it to be released at around €83.11 per bottle, rather than the €108 it eventually came out at.

Congratulations to the winner of a double magnum of Figeac 2012, whose prediction was out by just €5.

*Cos d’Estournel was removed from these results because the wine was released before the survey was closed. It is shown in the lower chart for your interest.


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