Now that the majority of 2013s have been released, attention has turned to the newly-physical 2011s, with in-bottle scores from Parker due on May 1st (tomorrow). The chart above compares the difference between the 2011 international release price, the current market price and the last trade price. Looking at release price versus market price, only four wines have risen in the last two years: Pavie and Angelus (as a result of their September 2012 promotion in the St Emilion re-classification), Petit Mouton and Calon Segur. Others have dropped substantially, with over 11 wines falling more than 10%.
But the real story lies at where the wines are trading. For 17 of the above wines the last trade price on Liv-ex is more than 10% below market price, suggesting that the 2011s are being discounted by merchants, and that the market price is heading lower. Like the 2013s, the 2011s were sold to the consumer as an early drinking vintage, and like the 2013s the vintage was considered overpriced and didn’t sell. But now they are in bottle, are the wines more interesting? With Parker’s scores imminent, the 2011s at their current prices are certainly more appealing than upon release. Perhaps they also give us a clue as to where the 2013s are heading.
