Last week, Liv-ex covered the release of Neal Martin’s Bordeaux 2018 report, in which he compared the 2018 vintage quality to 2016, 2010, and 2005. When reviewing the current market Martin declared a final statement, “It all depends on the price. Simple.” Is that true? As the alleged quality converges, will price be the determining factor?
Fortunately, the Liv-ex Bordeaux 500 (previous 10 vintages of top 50 Bordeaux wines) data has the answers to these questions.
The methodology is simple. Take the average Market Price of vintages 2005-2018, and compare these to Neal Martin’s average score of the vintage.
But, instead of delving further into mathematics, here’s a chart:
As the chart above suggests, there is a correlation between scores and price; lower scores have lower prices and higher scores have higher prices. However, this is not absolute.
The 2016 vintage appears to be the exception to the rule. It has the highest average quality of the charted vintages (96.2 points) yet is priced similar to the 2018 and 2015. It is also available at a discount to the lower scored 2005, 2009 and 2010 vintages. In terms of value, 2016 could not present itself more clearly.
Final thought – Take another look at 2016. The quality is there.
An extended analysis of Neal Martin’s Bordeaux 2018 scores will be included in the Liv-ex December Market Report.
