Latour 2008 coming – the price of provenance

Back in 2012, Latour announced that its 2011 wine would be the last vintage offered via the En Primeur system. Since then, the chateau has been drip-feeding the market with releases from its library.

Last March, it offered Latour 2006 and Forts Latour 2012 to the international trade. This was the first ever release of Forts Latour 2012, and merchants reported strong demand. Latour 2006, however, was priced at a 16% premium above cases already in the market and was met with a lukewarm response. Although buyers have historically been willing to pay a premium for provenance, 16% was too much of a stretch.

The chateau is expected to offer Latour 2008 next week. What will be the right price for buyers?

The wine is currently available in the secondary market at £4,599 per 12×75. Our analysis suggests that, at this price, it offers fair value; a good deal for both buyers and sellers. This is drawn from Liv-ex fair value methodology which is based on a correlation of Market Prices and Wine Advocate scores. We use the Wine Advocate because the correlations here are strongest.

Currently, Wine Advocate scores are mix of those from Robert Parker, Neal Martin and Lisa Perotti-Brown due to changes at the publication. The most recent WA score for Latour 2008 (95+) was given by Parker back in 2011. Our conclusion that the wine is at fair value is based on this score.

However, Martin – now at Vinous – has tasted the wine more recently and awarded it a slightly higher 96 points. If his score is considered in the calculations (shown in the chart below), we can see that the wine is below fair value. So, for followers of Martin, it may be an interesting buy at this price – particularly with the added allure of perfect provenance.

But at a high premium? Perhaps less compelling, but we will only find out if – or when – the chateau tests the market next week.

 


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