Exploring The Intersection of Wine, Data Science & A1
James Miles (Ceo of Liv-ex) recently attended the 2025 Vine to Mind Symposium in Lausanne — a one-of-a-kind event that explored how wine, data science, and AI are starting to blend in surprising ways. Held at the École hôtelière de Lausanne, the symposium brought together wine experts, researchers, and tech folks to dive into everything from AI-driven tasting tools to smarter vineyard management.
James shared a few key takeaways — here they are:
How was the 2024 Bordeaux En Primeur Campaign?
It was exceptionally challenging. Yields were substantially down from normal levels. In this fixed-cost business, halved yields mean halved income and doubled costs per bottle. Véronique Sanders of Haut-Bailly reported costs up four times per bottle compared to 2023. While many châteaux made good wines, prices needed to be substantially lower given the vintage profile. For most, 2024 was breakeven at best, but with China and the US out of the market, sales were soft. It’s the first vintage where every wine remained available at campaign’s end. UK En Primeur sales were 60% lower than last year and 80% lower than 2019.
What can we learn from recent campaigns?
En Primeur sales peaked in 2009 and have declined since. Véronique Sanders argued that Bordeaux represents great value—of the top 100 most expensive wines globally, only two (Petrus and Le Pin) come from Bordeaux. While valid, price remains central to En Primeur’s brand promise. Unlike most wines on the top 100 list, Bordeaux is made in large quantities. The argument for buying En Primeur has always been timing, but data shows collectors often benefit more from buying when wines become physical or ready to drink. The uncomfortable truth: price matters to customers, and the market has never been more transparent.
Why has En Primeur been so badly priced in recent years?
Historically, new vintages cost a third to half the price of 10-year-old vintages, compensating buyers for carrying costs until ready to drink. When accounting for opportunity cost, storage, and risk, this could easily be 10% annually. However, many 2022 Bordeaux wines were released at premiums to most available vintages, including some 2000s. This was unsustainable and largely explains the demand collapse.
How were the châteaux able to get away with this for so long?
Extremely loose fiscal and monetary policy after 2008 kept money supply high and interest rates near zero for over a decade. Rising demand and prices convinced many châteaux they owned luxury brands, not vineyards. They invested heavily in commercial capabilities, machinery, and new wineries, often with borrowed money. Simultaneously, they reduced Grand Vin production, promoted second and third wines, and cut yields to boost quality. Crucially, they reduced en primeur sales from 90% fifteen years ago to 30-50% (zero for Château Latour), creating false scarcity. This sparked an arms race among négociants using low rates to increase allocations through debt to protect revenue in a shrinking market.
Can the system survive the current crisis?
Yes, but it will be painful. Stock build-up across the supply chain is particularly acute in Bordeaux. Many négociants hold over two years’ sales in stock with debt-to-equity ratios exceeding 100%, amid rising interest rates and costs and falling prices. Many châteaux are learning firsthand about the risks and costs of holding stock. With no one in the chain (from chateaux to collector) making money, change is inevitable. Châteaux may sell excess capacity by declassifying their Grand Vins as generic Bordeaux, but mostly adjustment will come through lower prices, particularly for young wines where oversupply is worst. Liv-ex already shows newly released vintages falling 20-30%. Châteaux must abandon their luxury brand illusion and return to Bordeaux’s strength: high-quality wines in large volume at great prices. They need to reconnect with customers and match expectations on pricing — which will be much lower than recent investments allow – and leave enough margin for their distributors around the world to make selling Bordeaux worthwhile. It is going to be an uncomfortable time, but for lovers of claret everywhere – it is a buyers market.
Looking for guidance on navigating the Bordeaux market? Reach out to a member of the team — we’re here to help.
