At this year’s National Association of Wine Retailers (NAWR) Conference, Robbie Stevens, Head of Broking at Liv-ex, delivered a sharp and forward-looking presentation on “The Future of the Fine Wine Industry.” His talk offered not just a snapshot of where the market stands today—but where it’s headed, and how wine businesses must evolve to stay ahead.
Liv-ex: At the Center of the Global Fine Wine Market
As the global exchange for fine wine, Liv-ex supports over 600 members in 47 countries. From real-time trading to market analytics, the platform offers unmatched insights into wine pricing, demand, and performance. Drawing from this vast data pool, Stevens painted a clear picture of an industry undergoing transformation.
The Current Market: Correction, Not Collapse
Despite early optimism in 2024, the market continued to soften. The Liv-ex Investables index fell 21.5% from its October 2022 peak, while Bordeaux Legends declined by 20.8%. The broader LX1000 index was down over 26%.
Yet, Stevens emphasized this isn’t a collapse—it’s a correction. And with correction comes clarity.
Tariffs & Trade: A Complex but Resilient Relationship
Tariffs once again took center stage. U.S. buyers made up 35% of Liv-ex trade in 2024, but new 2025 tariffs on European wines—particularly from Bordeaux and Burgundy—have shaken the market. Still, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic.
Prediction #1: U.S. demand for European wines will continue, whether tariffs are at 10% or 20%. The market values certainty—and adapts quickly.
Past experience shows a pattern: an initial dip, followed by recovery. The same is likely true this time. Higher tariffs may pinch margins, but they also fuel price corrections on the supply side, helping keep fine wine accessible and competitive.
Beyond Bordeaux: A Broader, More Diverse Market
One major trend Stevens highlighted is the broadening of the fine wine market. U.S. buyers are increasingly exploring beyond the traditional blue-chip names. The market is seeing more attention to regions like White Burgundy, which experienced a smaller decline than its red counterparts.
Prediction #2: Fine wine will remain largely insulated from broader consumer market trends.
Unlike mainstream consumer goods, fine wine buying remains driven by collector behavior, scarcity, and long-term value—not short-term economic shifts.
What’s Next for Wine Businesses?
The fine wine market is changing—but the fundamentals remain strong. What’s required now is adaptability.
Stevens closed his presentation with a clear call to action:
Wine businesses must evolve. They must cater to a more diverse audience, provide greater choice, and offer better tools and data to inform buying decisions.
Final Thoughts
The headwinds are real—tariffs, currency fluctuations, shifting demand—but the outlook remains promising for those who are prepared. As Stevens put it, “The fine wine market will evolve—and so must we.”
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