What’s happening in the market
Chateau Lafite Rothschild 2020 is the top-traded wine of the week so far, changing hands in decent volumes at £3,920 per 12×75 – 33.3% below its ex-London release price (£5,880 per 12×75).
Cristal 2016 is in second place, and Domaine de la Romanee-Conti’s La Tache 2015 in third.
Today’s deep dive: California 50’s bid:offer ratio rises
In August, the California 50’s bid:offer ratio (by value) rose to 0.37 — its highest level since January 2023. While it now sits a touch lower at 0.36, this remains a significant improvement on the index’s February 2024 – July 2025 average of 0.22.
Why does the bid:offer ratio matter?
The bid:offer ratio not only serves as an indicator of market confidence but is also correlated with future price movements. If the bid:offer ratio rises, prices are very likely to follow. In the case of the California 50, a ratio over 0.3 has previously resulted in stable ensuing price movements (as in 2020 and late 2023). Should this improvement in the bid:offer ratio persist, the index is likely to find respite in the coming months.
This improvement in the bid:offer ratio coincides with the California 50 reaching its 2020 lows – the index’s next critical support zone.
Technical analysis of the California 50
Though these price movements are promising, trade levels of the California 50’s component wines remain low relative to Q1. This price level appears to be drawing bids, but this is not yet resulting in trade across the board. As we suggested in an August Market Update on Californian investment opportunities, price movements are more reliable when backed up with solid trade levels. Thus, when finding opportunities within the California 50, risk–averse buyers will look not just for strong bid:offer ratios, but the more actively traded amongst them.
Opportunities: high bid:offer ratios and recent trade
Just as the California 50 has returned to its 2021 lows, so too have prices of some of its components. Opus One has the highest bid:offer ratio of the index (0.58, up from 0.33 in August), and trades most frequently. The 2012 and 2013 have both recently changed hands above their last trade and the 2018 last traded above its Market Price.
Liv-ex trades of Opus One 2013
Liv-ex trades of Opus One 2012
Liv-ex trades of Opus One 2018
