What’s happening in the market?
‘On’ vintage Bordeaux dominated trade over the weekend, with Lafite 2019, Petrus 2010 and Mouton 2000 as the top traded wines by value.
Today’s deep dive: Chateau Mouton Rothschild
- The Mouton Rothschild Index is deep into a firmly bearish phase, with no technical indicators pointing to an immediate recovery.
- The index has largely been dragged down by price performance of recent vintages, with the addition of the 2022 this month unlikely to provide respite.
- Two separate price floors appear to be forming for Mouton’s ‘on’ and ‘off’ vintages. Despite the index’s bearish outlook, there are some individual vintages that appear interesting, testing these floors and recently rebounding.
During this year’s En Primeur campaign, Mouton Rothschild was one of few chateaux able and willing to price the 2024 vintage below any available on the market (analysis here). Reportedly, it sold well (relative to most other brands), and yet, there remains stock available on the market. Nevertheless, Mouton’s choice to price realistically will almost certainly have a positive impact on prices in the short through medium term. Unlike other recent vintages, the 2024 is unlikely to face a steep correction. It is at the hands of these other recent vintages – particularly the 2021 – that the broader Mouton Rothschild index has suffered so greatly.
Technical analysis
Since the turn of the market, prices of Mouton Rothschild have fallen fast – 30.1% since the index’s peak in late 2022. In mid 2024, the index fell below its 2020 lows, a level at which recovery had briefly looked possible. With the addition of the 2021 into the index and the subsequent tumble of its price (Market Price down from £5,100 at release to £3,280 currently), this potential support failed to hold. With technical indicators providing little reason to believe we are on the cusp of recovery and the 2022s entering the index this month, it looks increasingly likely that the index will continue to fall to its 2015 lows.
With the index having crossed firmly below its Simple Moving Averages and 2020 lows, the next most critical support lies a further 17.7% below its current level (from 293 to 241). The index’s Bollinger Bands are continuing to widen, increased volatility allowing for a continuation of the current steep bearish trend.
Are there exceptions?
As previously mentioned, the index’s strong downward momentum has been driven by trades of more recent vintages. The swift correction of the 2021, which now stands as the cheapest physical vintage on the market, looks to be nearing its end (trade prices ticking up slightly from a low of £3,162 per 12×75). That being said, recent upward moves have not been met with much trade. Momentum will be required to confirm whether the 2021 has reached its floor. Still, other ‘off’ vintages may well see a retracement to similar levels before finding their footing again.
Liv-ex trades of Chateau Mouton Rothschild 2021
‘On’ vintages will find their floors higher – closer to the £4,500-£5,000 range. Both the 2009 and 2016 vintages have recently seen an uptick in demand followed by a slight increase in Market Prices as they have reached 2020 lows.
Liv-ex trades of Mouton 2009
Liv-ex trades of Mouton Rothschild 2016
Liv-ex analysis is drawn from the world’s most comprehensive database of fine wine prices. The data reflects the real-time activity of Liv-ex’s 620+ merchant members from across the globe. Together they represent the largest pool of liquidity in the world – currently £140m of bids and offers across 20,000 wines.
