En Primeur Reflections from Tom Burchfield, Head of Market Intelligence
Tom talks to us about his experience of attending En Primeur; the Chateau he visited, the wines he tasted, and his expectations of pricing to come.
En Primeur Reflections from Tom Burchfield, Head of Market Intelligence
Along with most of the UK trade, we boarded the first Easy Jet flight from Gatwick to Bordeaux on Sunday morning. Bleary-eyed, I travelled with our CEO James Miles, Chief Commercial Officer Anthony Maxwell, and our Broker for Europe, Paolo-Luca Rossi. There was a sense of nervous anticipation. Rumours had it that the wines in Bordeaux had turned out better than expected. Word on the street was that producers were ready to face the current market state. We would see…
We headed straight to the Ballande & Meneret tasting. A huge warehouse, almost devoid of human life greeted us. Stacks of 2021s lined the tasting space, hoping for another day in the sun. We tasted c.50 wines, organised by appellation, and mostly towards the lower end of the price scale. I tasted quite a lot of green and unripe tannins. There were a few successes (Rauzan-Segla was a team favourite), but we left fearing that this year may not be the turning point we’d hoped for. After a streak of bad vintages, and a tough growing season, we wondered what the rest of En Primeur week would bring?
Day two began with a trip up the Left Bank to Saint-Estephe, starting with Montrose. After the mixed bag at Ballande, Montrose lifted our spirits – it was a very delicious wine. A quick hop skip and a jump over to Calon where we had a chance to chat with the team around the vintage, the market, and their plans.
In advance of tasting week, the Liv-ex Market Intelligence team (Market Analyst Sophia Gilmour, Data Analyst Alex Chisholm and I) had published our En Primeur book. We included an opening ‘state of the Bordeaux market’ report and individual analyses on each major wine. I brought a copy of the book along to Bordeaux, with individual printouts of the wine analyses, which I offered to each producer we met.
When we showed the data, the response was generally consistent insofar as there really did appear to be a willingness to support the campaign (this gave me a boost). There was also talk about reducing the number of negociants they worked with. Among other things, we routinely ask:
- How many full-time employees do you have?
- What about producing more grand vin and less of the second and third wines?
- How much is one critics’ point worth to you?
- Will you release at a price that will make the 2024 the cheapest in the market?
In that very charming bordelais manner, our hosts managed to come across as both humble and confident, that the market would come around to their will.
Day three begins with a drive to Libourne for the Moueix tasting, followed by a mind-altering sequence at Le Pin, Lafleur, Petrus, and lunch at Cheval Blanc. Possibly the most fascinating meeting of the trip, the Cheval team appeared committed to releasing the 2024 at a ‘no-brainer’ price. This left us feeling confident that we’d touch down in the UK with a promising En Primeur campaign ahead….
We took the last flight back to London for the Easter break and the anticipation of Pontet-Canet kicking things off next week.
EP campaign – hard work
At Liv-ex, we send our members real-time analysis of each major release. As the campaign began, we hopefully asked each other the same question: ‘Do you think Chateau X will do enough’? The further the campaign went on, the more inevitable the answer became: ‘They’ll get close, but probably not do quite enough’.
En Primeur coverage had been too focused on the percentage increase or decrease from the previous year’s release. While this made for good marketing material and enticing news stories, it is largely insignificant. Moreover, comparing a decade of generally poor release prices to one another makes little sense at all.
The crux of whether a release represented a good buying opportunity was simple and boiled down to one question: Were there less expensive back vintages, of similar or better quality, available on the market?
If the answer was no, then it could have been a ‘buy’. You do need to factor in costs of carry, and with storage currently c.£15 per 12×75 a year, this is not insignificant. .
However, if the answer was yes, then the release could not be considered a no-brainer ‘buy’. If there were multiple better rated and considerably less expensive back vintages available, then it really wasn’t a buy.
Unfortunately, this year’s campaign had few instances where the price and quality presented a better offer than what was already available on the market from previous years. Lafite and Mouton spring to mind, and Carmes Haut-Brion ascent continued. While release price reductions were commendable, there were better alternatives available.
It’s was notable that, according to our members, even when a release appeared a no-brainer buying opportunity, it was often been met by disengaged end consumers. Buyer’s apathy had taken hold, or as one more forthright traditional EP buyer told me: ‘We’ve been ****** for too many years, why buy this middling vintage?’
It was interesting that the frustration with the system had reached a point where participants from across the supply chain were now daring to put their heads above the parapet. As the first releases came out, UK merchants publicly told their customers that they had hoped for better prices. This was quite remarkable. There couldn’t have been many other industries where sales emails told you that the price wasn’t great.
Similar stories emerged from La Place, where negociants had not been shy of showing their dismay at prices they knew wouldn’t sell. Reportedly, the courtiers were also shaking their heads in disbelief.
So what might the future hold?
Before the campaign kicked off, we had thought that the small crop of 2024s represented an opportunity for producers to reset and price at a level that would invigorate the market. There may not have been any price good enough to reinvigorate the market, but now we’ll never know… So what could 2025 hold?
We had to hope that 2025 would be a beautiful and bountiful vintage. One that was cheaper for producers to make, and theoretically gave the trade an easier thing to sell. While still 12 months away, we anticipated that the market could not stomach further price rises. It would have to be priced well below other back vintages. In a falling market, this was no easy feat, and one that might be hard to contemplate. But that’s what needed to be done. If the 2024 campaign had felt like last chance saloon, then for some another misstep might well result in closing time.
