What’s happening in the market?
Giacomo Conterno’s Barolo Monfortino Riserva 2019, having recently entered the secondary market, is the top-traded wine of the week so far, changing hands around £6,250 per 12×75.
Today’s deep dive: the Rhone 100 & Rayas
Compared to the broader market, the Rhone 100’s growth over time has been modest, up just 70.3% since inception compared to the Liv-ex 1000’s 246.8% gain. Its performance through the downturn has not been aided by the tendency of buyers to stick with regions of perceived safety during poor market conditions; the Rhone’s share of the market (by value) has fallen from 4.5% in 2021 to just 2.6% year-to-date. The pullback of US buyers, who in 2024 accounted over half of Rhone purchasing, dealt the region another blow. The index now rests between its 2014 peak and 2015 low, a level at which we are beginning to see signs of promise – decreasing volatility (as represented by the narrowing Bollinger Bands) and upward movement of its Relative Strength Index (RSI).
Technical analysis of the Rhone 100
In late 2023, the Rhone 100’s RSI fell below 30, crossing into oversold territory for the first time since its inception. While the index has continued to make lower lows, the RSI is now making higher lows, forming a bullish divergence. Paired with stabilising prices (at least amongst more actively traded components), this pattern supports the view that this support zone may hold.
Top-traded: Chateau Rayas
As with the highflyers of Burgundy, Champagne and Piedmont, Chateau Rayas, once seen as a strong investment, took a hit at the turn of the market, trade slowing and its prices declining swiftly. In several cases, prices have now returned to pre-pandemic levels, levels that appear to be capturing the attention of potential buyers. In August, its bid:offer ratio rose above 1 for the first time since February 2022. As of October 20th, the ratio sits at 1.58. In other words, secondary market demand for Rayas now firmly outweighs supply.
As we have noted for the likes of Selosse, demand returning for these very high value wines can be taken as a vote of confidence in the market. Necessarily, they present the most risk, but also the best potential nominal returns for those willing to take the plunge. Seeing trades take place at slightly higher prices than in previous months gives some weight to this view.
Top-traded Rayas Chateauneuf-du-Pape vintages
So far this year, the 2011 vintage is the top-traded by value. Prices have fallen gradually over the past two years following a long pause in trade as its Market Price tumbled). Its most recent trade, however, took place at £7,500 per 12×75, 25% above its June low of £6,000.
Auctions and Liv-ex trades of Rayas, CnDP 2011
Prices of the 2012 have fallen more steeply, but have now, similarly to the 2011, come to rest around the £7,500 per 12×75 mark.
Liv-ex trades of Rayas, CnDP 2012
More mature vintages, such as the 2007, are seeing a clearer reversion to their 2020 lows, followed by increases in trade prices. Auction prices, though more volatile, have behaved similarly.
Auctions and Liv-ex trades of Chateau Rayas CnDP 2007
Liv-ex analysis is drawn from the world’s most comprehensive database of fine wine prices. The data reflects the real-time activity of Liv-ex’s 620+ merchant members from across the globe. Together they represent the largest pool of liquidity in the world – currently £140m of bids and offers across 20,000 wines.
