Fine wine merchants expect prices to run flat in 2020 – survey results

By February 11, 2020Fine Wine Market

Chart showing merchant predictions for the closing level of the Liv-ex 100 index

Liv-ex members represent the largest pool of professional fine wine traders in the world and are estimated to account for 90% of fine wine turnover globally. There are currently 475 members of Liv-ex across 44 different countries that range from start-ups to centuries old, established merchants.

Each year, we ask our members for their thoughts and predictions on the year ahead in the form of a short survey. As part of the survey, we ask them to predict the closing level of the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 index for December that year.

This year, Liv-ex members are expecting the fine wine market to run flat in 2020. On average, respondents predicted that the industry benchmark, Liv-ex 100 index, would increase by 0.7% to close at 304.77. The median response was slightly lower at 303.00, representing a 0.1% rise.

53% of those surveyed predicted that the index will rise. 45% think it will fall and 2% expect it to close on the exact level it did on 31st December 2019. The most optimistic respondent expects gains of 31.5%; the most pessimistic predicts a drop of 20%.

In 2019, members overestimated price rises for the year. Their average prediction was for gains of 5.47%, while in reality the index fell 3.04%.

Liv-ex has now published additional findings from the survey along with a special report on the future of fine wine trading, which you can obtain here.

Interested in Liv-ex membership?

Liv-ex is the global marketplace for the wine trade. Our members range from start-ups to established merchants and we supply them with the tools they need to price, source and sell wine more efficiently. For more information on how we can help you, click on the link that best describes you below: