Liv-ex members are expecting the fine wine market to rise in 2019, if only a little, according to the results of a survey conducted in January.
After three consecutive years of gains for the market, the Liv-ex 100 index dipped 0.2% in 2018. It also drifted by 0.02% in January, closing the month at 311.98.
In 2018, members slightly overestimated price rises for the year. Their average prediction was for gains of 3.7%, while in reality the index was flat.
In 2019, 60% of those surveyed predict that the index will rise; 34% think it will fall and 6% expect it to run flat. The most optimistic respondent expects gains of 27%; the most pessimistic predicts a drop of 15%.
On average, respondents expect the industry benchmark to increase by a tame 2.3% this year to close at 319.13. This view of the market would seem to reflect a somewhat muted sentiment towards Bordeaux which makes up 68% of the Liv-ex 100.
Our merchant members were also asked to predict the top three performing sub-indices of the Liv-ex 1000, our broadest measure of the market.
Similar to last year, the majority expected Burgundy to outperform the market. 68% of those surveyed picked the Burgundy 150 index as their first choice, while 26% of the respondents thought it would place 2nd or 3rd.
13% believe the Bordeaux Legends 50 will be the top performer, while 7% voted for the Bordeaux 500.
The best performing sub-indices in 2018 were the Burgundy 150, Bordeaux Legends 50 and the Champagne 50.
To view the list of wines that make up the Liv-ex 1000 sub-indices, click here.
Liv-ex members represent the largest pool of professional fine wine traders in the world. Its base of 426 merchant members from 41 different countries is estimated to account for 90% of fine wine turnover globally.
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