Cos d’Estournel 2016: Fair value?

Cos d’Estournel 2016

So far, there have been mixed views on this morning’s surprise Cos d’Estournel 2016 release. The wine came out at €120 per bottle ex-negociant, equal to the estate’s 2015. A slip in Sterling means that those buying ex-London will be paying a 10% premium on the previous year’s release. Dollar strength suggests that US buyers will be paying around 5% less.

Many have been pleased by the lack of increase in the ex-Negociant price.

Liv-ex’s ‘fair value’ methodology suggests that if Neal Martin’s score for the wine – to be announced on Friday – is high enough, the price could be right. As the chart above shows, Martin would need to score the wine around 96-98 in order to put it in line with similarly priced vintages and below the ‘fair value’ trend line.

Martin has not always favoured Cos in great vintages. The 2009, which was awarded 100 points by Parker and is admired by many other critics, received just 91 points from Martin who called it ‘slutty’.

However, many agree that the winemaking style at Cos has become less promiscuous over the past few years.

If Martin does rate the 2016 highly, this would still leave buyers with a dilemma: the proven (and aged) 2005 or 2010, or the potentially fabulous 2016?

Market prices shown in the chart are in Sterling. Find out about Liv-ex ‘fair value’ methodology here.

[mc4wp_form id=”18204″]